Purpose
The purpose of this task is to review and analyze background data germane to the BRAC 2005 buildup including an inventory of existing conditions and growth influences as well as identification of issues relative to specific areas of interest throughout three counties in Alabama, Madison, Morgan and Limestone, hereafter referred to in this proposal as the primary study area. TASK 2 – REGIONAL VISIONING PROCESS will expand the area of study to include Jackson County, Lawrence County, Marshall County, Cullman County and The Shoals in Alabama, and Lincoln, Giles, Franklin and Lawrence counties in Tennessee which comprise the primary commutershed for employees working on Redstone Arsenal. This area will hereafter be referred to in this proposal as the broader impact region.
The likely direct, indirect and induced impacts of the BRAC buildup between 2007 and 2011, as well as its continuing impacts beyond this specific period of time, will be identified. The Consultant Team will collect past analyses and develop a fiscal impact model for the BRAC buildup to prepare the analysis. This analysis will forecast the likely increases in population, households, public school students, vehicle traffic, airport boardings, water consumption, hotel lodging nights and retail sales that are expected from the overall buildup including impacts from construction and increases in the population of regional residents.
The Consultant Team will produce an estimate by year for each of the above factors. Using this data, we will prepare an overall assessment of the revenue fiscal impacts of this growth in terms of retail sales taxes, property taxes and other public sector revenues that can be expected from the overall BRAC process.
Research
Our analysis will look at the fiscal and geographic impact of the BRAC buildup on area wages and employment levels. Using data relevant to contractor and Department of Defense wages, we will forecast the distribution of wages to determine what proportion of the created jobs pay average, below average and above average incomes. This data will be useful to ascertain the overall need for those with specific skills and degrees and to develop a plan to recruit such individuals.
The Consultant Team will forecast the overall increase of jobs in the region from the three levels of economic impact: direct, indirect and induced. We will look at the number of graduates and other new entrants to the regional labor force who are likely to enter the workforce during the period of the buildup. This information will be used to forecast the number of new jobs that must be filled via recruitment of workers from other regions of Alabama and the rest of the nation.
The distribution of impacts by city and county will be estimated based on historical growth rates and distance from Redstone Arsenal. To the extent that electronic building permit data is available for the region, the Consultant Team will prepare GIS maps of recent residential and commercial construction and make forecasts of the likely distribution of BRAC growth based on these trends. In the absence of building permit data, we will estimate the geographic distribution of the buildup based on a gravity model that we will construct for this purpose.
The incremental costs for public services, including K-12 education, utility infrastructure, highways, public safety, health, human services, cultural and recreational resources and economic development will be collected from previous studies by cities, counties and other units of government within the BRAC jurisdictions. In cases where adequate services or data is not available, the Consultant Team will identify gaps and note them in the reports prepared under this task.
The Consultant Team will conduct interviews with elected officials in the primary study area affected by the buildup, along with representatives of the Redstone Arsenal, stakeholder groups and civic groups to identify critical public service issues that are likely to result from the BRAC induced buildup. A roster of the identified issues will be compiled for use in future tasks identified in the planning process of this proposal. Those individuals to be interviewed will be determined jointly by the Project Director, the Advisory Committee, the Regional Stakeholders Group, the Elected Officials Council and the Consultant Team. A total of ten staff days will be allocated for these interviews.
Work Products
- A database structure listing the regional and local studies and documents related to BRAC 2005 by issue area. The database structure will be engineered for on-line use and will be available within three weeks of the notice to proceed.
- An impact study that determines the overall fiscal impact of the buildup at Redstone Arsenal on regional communities. To the extent that electronic building permit data is available throughout the region, the geographic distribution of impacts by county and city will be estimated. A draft of this study will be submitted within four months of the notice to proceed. The final report will be submitted on or before November 1, 2008.
- A report pertaining to regional growth trends and the impacts on citizens that provides a baseline of information by subject matter (i.e., population, housing, wages, employment levels, utility consumption, etc.). A draft of this report will be submitted within four months of the notice to proceed. The final report will be submitted on or before November 1, 2008.